Trade Strategy 3.16.23

Markets (Top Stories)

Credit Suisse’s $54B lifeline

Credit Suisse (CS) will borrow as much as 50 billion francs ($54 billion) from the Swiss National Bank liquidity facility. The troubled Swiss bank also announced public tender offers by Credit Suisse International to repurchase certain OpCo senior debt securities for cash of up to ~3 billion francs. The news sent its Swiss shares over 32% higher today in morning trade, while its U.S.-listed shares gained 9% before the bell.

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
8:30 Housing Starts and Permits
8:30 Import/Export Prices
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Textbook Cycle Day 2 as price oscillated with outline range parameters producing a neutral day. Prior range was 62 handles on 2.054M contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently above CD1 Low (3885) which satisfy’s the Positive Three-Day Cycle Statistic. As such we’ll mark today as a “wild-card” for direction as price is currently mid-5 day range. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3925, initially targets 3950 – 3955 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3925, initially targets 3900 – 3895 zone.

PVA High Edge = 3912       PVA Low Edge = 3875         Prior POC = 3894

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2023 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 3991; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3864; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3920; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3960; 10 Day Average True Range  83; VIX: 26

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Textbook Cycle Day 2 as price oscillated with outline range parameters producing a neutral day. Prior range was 310 handles on 777k contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently above CD1 Low (12032) which satisfy’s the Positive Three-Day Cycle Statistic. As such we’ll mark today as a “wild-card” for direction as price is currently mid-5 day range. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 12400, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12485– 12495 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 12400, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12240 – 11300 zone.

PVA High Edge = 12316       PVA Low Edge = 12131     Prior POC = 11842

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2023 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 12670; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12170; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12192; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12405; 10 Day Average True Range: 292; VIX: 26

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

Comments are closed.