Markets (Top Stories)
Crude is back in the news following a shock oil output cut from major producers in the OPEC+ group. WTI crude futures (CL1:COM) surged past $81 a barrel at the open to its highest price since late January, with the May contract rallying as much as 8%, while June Brent crude (CO1:COM) opened at its best level in nearly a month, advancing by the same percentage to over $86/bbl.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
12:30 PM Investor Movement Index
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): End of Month/Quarter saw markets rally to recent high levels, fulfilling 3 Day Cycle Targets. Prior range was 64 handles on 1.556M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently trading slightly lower to begin the new trading month. Having fulfilled 3 Day Cycle Targets, we will mark today as a “wild-card” for direction. Anticipation is for some 2-way balancing action to work off recent activity. Being Monday and first trading day of April, potential for “Mutual Fund Monday” (MFM) underlying bid to be sustained, as fresh funds are invested in the markets.. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4125, initially targets 4140 – 4145 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4125, initially targets 4115 – 4110 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4142 PVA Low Edge = 4105 Prior POC = 4139
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4181; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4079; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4076; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4138; 10 Day Average True Range 76; VIX: 19
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): End of Month/Quarter saw markets rally to recent high levels, fulfilling 3 Day Cycle Targets. Prior range was 254 handles on 613k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently trading slightly lower to begin the new trading month. Having fulfilled 3 Day Cycle Targets, we will mark today as a “wild-card” for direction. Anticipation is for some 2-way balancing action to work off recent activity. Being Monday and first trading day of April, potential for “Mutual Fund Monday” (MFM) underlying bid to be sustained, as fresh funds are invested in the markets.. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 13200, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13260– 13275 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 13200, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13160 – 13140 zone.
PVA High Edge = 13248 PVA Low Edge = 13091 Prior POC = 13228
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13450; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13025; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13056; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13326; 10 Day Average True Range: 275; VIX: 19
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN