Markets (Top Stories)
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM Farm Prices
3:05 PM Fed’s Williams Speech
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Markets did produce a decline, albeit shallow on establishing new Cycle Low at 4052.50. Shallow declines mean bullish underlying price strength and is a strong signal to be a bit more assertive with trade trend alignment. Prior range was 35 handles on 1.279M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price came within three-ticks of the JPM Collar Price Target (4095) during overnight trade which we have been discussing this week, leading up to EOM/EOQ expiration. We’ll anticipate a Normal CD2, though with month/quarter close, anything/everything is potential. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4080, initially targets 4095 – 4105 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4080, initially targets 4065 – 4060 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4085 PVA Low Edge = 4072 Prior POC 4082
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4139; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4033; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4040; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4138; 10 Day Average True Range 76; VIX: 19
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Markets did produce a decline, albeit shallow on establishing new Cycle Low at 12931.50. Shallow declines mean bullish underlying price strength and is a strong signal to be a bit more assertive with trade trend alignment. Prior range was 180 handles on 571k contracts exchanged.
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is back n fill consolidation to work off recent activity. End of Month/Quarter Expiration will be the main theme for today’s activity. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 13085, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13135– 13145 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 13085, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13030 – 13020 zone.
PVA High Edge = 13090 PVA Low Edge = 13040 Prior POC = 13080
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2022 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13318; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12890; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12894; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13326; 10 Day Average True Range: 248; VIX: 19
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN