Markets (Top Stories)
Inflation will take the spotlight this morning as markets prepare for personal consumption expenditures price data before the bell. Expectations signal slow progress in the Fed’s inflation fight, with core PCE expected to have risen 2.8% in April, the same level as the prior three months.
Source: investing.com
Economic Calendar
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: Markets failed to sustain bid above our stated 5272 “sandbox” edge as noted in the Live Trading Room. Quote: “PTGDavid : (9:49:05 AM) : Core sandbox 62 – 72.” Once the lower edge (5262) was violated, this constituted a bearish structural shift, with increasing selling pressure for remainder of this session, closing near lows of the day. Range was 38 handles on 1.404M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3: Price having closed below Cycle Day 1 Low (5268.25), historical odds (91.43%) favor reclaiming this level during today’s session, to satisfy the 3 Day Cycle Statistic. Failure to recover would have bearish implications over a broader period moving forward.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5250, initially targets 5265 – 5270 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5250, initially targets 5235 – 5230 zone.
PVA High Edge = 5272 PVA Low Edge = 5257 Prior POC = 5263
PTG 3 Day Cycle
EXCLUSIVE OFFER
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 90% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
Range Projections (ES) June 2024 (M)
- BULL ATR Range Projection >>> 5283
- BEAR ATR Range Projection >>> 5231
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: Markets failed to sustain bid above Initial Balance Midpoint (18726) and then violation of VAL (18653) opened the selling “flood-gates” for remainder of this session, closing near lows of the day. Range was 240 handles on 611k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3: Price having closed below Cycle Day 1 Low (18740), historical odds (91.43%) favor reclaiming this level during today’s session, to satisfy the 3 Day Cycle Statistic. Failure to recover would have bearish implications over a broader period moving forward.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
.Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 18590, initially targets 18660 – 18715 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 18590, initially targets 18490 – 18455 zone.
PVA High Edge = 18748 PVA Low Edge = 18656 Prior POC = 18686
Range Projections (NQ) June 2024 (M)
- BULL ATR Range Projection >>> 18756
- BEAR ATR Range Projection >>> 18576
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN