Trade Strategy 9.30.24

Posted on by September 30, 2024

S&P 500

Important Note: We have begun publishing the PTG Trading Room Daily RECAP which you should be receiving at the end of each trading day. This publication is a more detailed review of how the trading unfolded throughout the day from our viewpoint. It is an “educational” complimentary companion to be used in conjunction with the Daily Trade Strategy. It continues to be “work-in-progress”, so please offer feedback as to content, style and relevance. We are always striving to make PTG Products and Services the very best

Current Market Context: The price is trapped between 5770-5800, within monthly value. There has been a noticeable shift higher in value, supporting a bullish case for continuation towards new all-time highs. The session aligns with month-end, potentially featuring “window-dressing” as bulls aim for a close above 5800.

Previous Session Cycle Day 1: Normal decline established a new cycle low at 5782. This new low acts as a benchmark for this cycle’s performance.

Prior range was 39 handle’s on 1.181 million contracts exchanged. 

For a more detailed recap of prior trading session click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 9.27.24

 …Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

Bull Scenario

    • Premise: Bulls will aim to defend the Line in the Sand (LIS) 5795 level, positioning for continued upside momentum.
    • Strategy: Consider long positions if price maintains a bid above 5795. Look for signals of acceptance and volume above this level. 
      • Target 1: 5810 (initial resistance zone)
      • Target 2: 5815 (upper boundary of resistance)

 

Bear Scenario

  • Premise: If bears defend Line in the Sand (LIS) 5795, expect downside pressure into key support levels.
  • Strategy: Consider short positions if price sustains below 5795, targeting lower price discovery into support.
    • Target 1: 5780 (lower edge of the value zone)
    • Target 2: 5775 (next key support zone)

 

Key Levels

  • PVA High Edge: 5808
  • PVA Low Edge: 5786
  • Prior POC: 5797
  • Key Monthly LIS Pivot: 5785 ± 10 points

Notes: If price breaks below 5775, there’s potential for further downside pressure deep into the 5750-5730 zone. Be cautious of false breakdowns if volume remains light.

  • Opening Bias: Monitor how price reacts to the 5795 level within the first 15-30 minutes of the session to gauge initial market sentiment.
  • Volume Confirmation: Ensure volume aligns with the directional move. Watch for key volume nodes around 5797 (Prior POC) for signals of acceptance or rejection of price.
  • Max Risk per Trade: Ensure risk is limited to a predetermined percentage of account equity, typically 1-2%, depending on market volatility.
  • Volatility Considerations: Given the prior session’s 39-handle range, expect increased volatility due to month-end dynamics. Adjust stops and profit targets accordingly.
  • Position Sizing: Use the average true range (ATR) of recent sessions to calculate appropriate position sizing. The wider range implies reducing size slightly to account for potential large moves.

 

   ES Chart (Target Master)

 

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Previous Session Cycle Day 1: Normal decline as price established a new cycle low at 20173. This new low acts as a benchmark for this cycle’s performance. Prior Range was 222 handle’s on 502k contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2 

This leads us into Cycle Day 2: Final day of the month with an expectation of some “window-dressing.” Line in the Sand (LIS) for this session is 20252 which is the weekly pivot and the 3-Day Central Pivot Zone. 

Key Levels

  • PVA High Edge: 20322
  • PVA Low Edge: 20214
  • Prior POC: 20252

Our discipline of maintaining intra-day positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 20252, initially targets 20325 – 20350 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 20252, initially targets 20214 – 20192 zone.

 

NQ Chart (Target Master)

 

 

Economic Calendar

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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