Recap of PTGDavid’s Postings on February 20, 2025

The day’s trading activity centered on Cycle Day 1 (CD1), which PTGDavid described as the start of a new 3-day cycle with an expectation of a decline to establish a “secure cycle low” for a potential subsequent rally.

Below is a summary of his key postings and observations:

Morning Session (8:50 AM – 12:00 PM PST)

• • Initial Context (8:50 AM): PTGDavid noted quiet overnight trading with prices meandering around the “6150 Line in the Sand (LIS)” for ES, a pivotal level indicating potential bullish or bearish scenarios. He highlighted CD1 statistics: an average range of 71 points, an average decline of 61 points, with odds of a decline greater than 10 points at 79% and greater than 20 points at 56%. This “Line in the Sand” concept reflects a critical price level where market direction might shift, given the market’s contractionary phase (narrowing ranges) transitioning to expansion.

• • Strategy Guidance (8:51 AM): PTGDavid emphasized sticking to PTG’s “Primary Directive” of aligning with the “Dominant Force” in the market, using the “Alignment, Assignment & Attack (AAA)” framework for high-probability setups. He stressed disciplined risk management, including hard stop-losses on the exchange.

• • Market Movement (9:38 AM – 10:05 AM): As the Regular Trading Hours (RTH) opened, PTGDavid executed and reported trades:
    • • A long position on CL OPR (crude oil) with Target 1 filled by 9:38 AM.
    • • Short positions on NQ OPR and ES OPR, with targets hit progressively: ES declined to 6135–6130 (bear scenario target), and NQ hit 22140–22100. By 10:05 AM, both ES and NQ fulfilled the CD1 average decline levels (6106.93 for ES, 21992.78 for NQ), aligning with the statistical expectations shared earlier.

• • Market Analysis (10:06 AM – 11:27 AM): After the decline, PTGDavid observed a “buy response” at cycle low levels, indicating potential support. He noted a “balancing phase” near 6110 (Point of Control, POC) for ES, describing it as a consolidation zone after the directional move. Bears remained in control below 6130, but a retest of the CD1 low at 6103 became a “must-hold” level for bulls to secure the low. CL OPR Target 2 was fulfilled by 11:27 AM, with a risk-free stop trail in place.

Afternoon Session (1:02 PM – 3:52 PM PST)

• • Break and Resumption (1:02 PM – 1:54 PM): PTGDavid stepped out for lunch but returned by 1:54 PM, signaling “Shake n Bake Time,” suggesting increased volatility or opportunity.

• • Market Shift (2:22 PM – 3:52 PM): Bulls gained control in the afternoon, with prices testing above the midday midpoint. By 3:39 PM, PTGDavid mentioned the Market on Close (MOC) activity, noting a $1B buy imbalance, indicating strong buying pressure at the close.

Key Themes and Actions:

• • PTGDavid consistently referenced cycle statistics, pivotal price levels (e.g., 6150 LIS, 6103 must-hold), and market phases (contraction to expansion, balancing phases) to guide trading decisions.

• • He executed precise trades based on open range (OPR) setups, targeting specific levels, and emphasized risk management (stops, trailing stops).

• • The day unfolded as a typical CD1 with a decline, followed by consolidation and a bullish response, aligning with PTG’s 3-day cycle methodology.

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Educational Takeaway: Understanding Cycle Days and Market Phases in Trading

PTGDavid’s postings offer valuable lessons for traders, particularly those new to technical analysis or cycle-based trading strategies. Here’s an educational takeaway:

1. 1. Cycle Days as a Framework for Expectation Setting:
      • • PTG uses a 3-day cycle model where each day (CD1, CD2, CD3) has statistical tendencies based on historical data. For CD1, the expectation of a decline (e.g., average 61 points for ES, 79% odds of >10 points) helps traders anticipate market behavior and prepare setups. This demonstrates how statistical probabilities can guide trading bias without guaranteeing outcomes—markets are probabilistic, not deterministic.

1. 1. “Line in the Sand” (LIS) as a Pivotal Level:
      • • The 6150 LIS for ES served as a critical threshold to monitor bullish vs. bearish scenarios.  Traders can use such levels to define risk (e.g., stop-loss below LIS) and identify entry/exit points, but they must remain flexible, as markets can break through “lines” unexpectedly.

1. 1. Market Phases: Contraction, Expansion, and Balancing:
      • • PTGDavid described the market transitioning from a “contractionary phase” (narrow ranges, coiling price action) to an “expansionary phase” (directional moves like the CD1 decline). The “balancing phase” near 6110 POC illustrated a consolidation period after a trend, allowing traders to assess whether the dominant force (bulls or bears) would regain control. Understanding these phases helps traders adapt strategies—e.g., avoiding trades during tight contractions or capitalizing on breakouts during expansion.

1. 1. Discipline and Risk Management:
      • • PTGDavid’s emphasis on “Triple A setups,” hard stop-losses, and aligning with the “Dominant Force” underscores the importance of discipline. Traders should develop a plan based on probabilities (like CD1 stats), execute with conviction, but manage risk rigorously to survive inevitable market fluctuations.

1. 1. Practical Application:
      • • To apply this, traders can:
          • • Track cycle days or similar time-based patterns in their markets.
          • • Identify key levels (e.g., LIS, cycle lows) using technical tools like support/resistance, VWAP, or volume profiles.
          • • Monitor market phases to adjust strategies—e.g., scalping during balancing phases, trending during expansions.
          • • Always use stop-losses and position sizing to manage risk, ensuring longevity in trading.

By studying PTGDavid’s approach, traders can learn to combine statistical expectations, technical levels, and market psychology to make informed, disciplined decisions, even in volatile or uncertain conditions. However, success requires practice, backtesting, and adapting to real-time market dynamics.