S&P 500 (ES)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: “6890: The Magnetic Force”
Contract rollover officially took the wheel today as March (ESH) stepped into command with a ~60-point premium over December. Translation: mind your charts, mind your fills, and absolutely mind your ego.
Post-FOMC “reset” did not mean breakout — price stayed boxed inside the two-week consolidation range (6850–6990), delivering motion, opportunity, and a reminder that the exchange remains undefeated.
The Battlefield
6890 was declared the Line in the Sand / Mason-Dixon Line for directional control — and it lived up to the billing.
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Hold above 6890 → Bulls retain narrative control
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Lose 6890 → Bears press the trapdoor
Spoiler: both sides got paid.
For greater detail of how this day unfolded, click on the Trading Room RECAP 12.15.25 link.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
Transition into Cycle Day 3: “Hold the Line or Hit the Deck”
The key battle line for today’s session sits at 6865, yesterday’s lower target — a level that absorbed repeated sell-side probes and refused to crack. That line in the sand now defines whether this session turns into a controlled skirmish… or a full-blown liquidation event.
Bears are growling. They’re pressing for a structural breakdown that could finally snap Bull resolve and force inventory puke. However, the Positive Three-Day Cycle Statistic (92.28%) remains intact so long as price holds above 6805 (ESH6) during RTH. Lose that, and the math — not the narrative — starts to flip.
Bulls remain on defense below 6930, but don’t mistake defense for weakness. This may be a deliberate rope-a-dope — inviting shorts to overcommit while stronger hands quietly reprice inventory at a lower cost basis. Markets love punishing certainty.
From a positioning lens, End-of-Day Gamma Exposure (GEX) flags 6860 as the fulcrum for today’s session. Expect volatility, rotations, and emotional damage to cluster around this zone.
Contract rollover to March (ESH6) from December (ESZ5) is well underway and should not materially distort today’s price action — no excuses there.
Finally, the macro backdrop wakes back up this week. Delayed economic heavyweights — NFP and CPI — are back on deck. Translation: reduced complacency, faster tape, and less forgiveness.
Stay sharp. Stay liquid.
Cycle Day 3 doesn’t negotiate — it tests.
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6865+-, initially targets 6885 – 6890 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6865+-, initially targets 6845 – 6840 zone.
PVA High Edge = 6888 PVA Low Edge = 6870 Prior POC = 6880
ESH
Nasdaq (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: Gap, Trap, and a Whole Lot of Meh
The session opened with a confident gap up, but higher prices failed to entice fresh buying lambs. With no follow-through, the door slammed shut and price reversed sharply, establishing a clear morning sell-side rhythm.
The D-Level Money Box quickly became the proving ground for Bull resolve — and to their credit, they showed up. Responsive buyers stepped in and recovered roughly half of the early plunge, stabilizing the tape before conditions deteriorated into something far less cinematic.
From there, the market settled into an uninspiring drift lower into the closing bell — the kind of session that drains enthusiasm, rewards patience, and punishes anyone expecting heroics after lunch.
No fireworks. No panic.
Just controlled damage, disciplined defense, and a market clearly waiting for its next catalyst.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
Transition into Cycle Day 3: The initial 3-Day Cycle target at 25293 (NQZ5) has already been cleanly tagged — the market’s subtle way of saying, “Mission accomplished… now let’s see who’s still standing.”
With price closing near the lows of the prior session, expectations lean toward a spill-over continuation into today’s trade. A decisive break lower opens the domino line, with downside magnets lining up at 25234 → 25181 → 25140, the D-Level Money Box Zone where liquidation math starts getting uncomfortable.
Bulls’ mandate:
Hold the line. Any chance of stabilizing requires a reclaim of the PL and 25315, which would disrupt the sell rhythm and force shorts to reassess their confidence (and their stops).
Bears’ perspective:
Momentum is finally leaning their way. With the down rhythm already established, bears see an opportunity to press the advantage and monetize yesterday’s hard work, aiming to turn structure damage into follow-through.
In short:
Above 25315, sellers lose leverage.
Below 25234, gravity starts doing the heavy lifting.
Capital preservation first. Execution second. 🎯
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 25285+-, initially targets 25315– 25350 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 25285+-, initially targets 25181 – 25140 zone.
PVA High Edge = 25440 PVA Low Edge = 25332 Prior POC = 25390
NQH
Economic Calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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