S&P 500 (ES)
Cycle Day 2 — “Capital Preservation Day”
Everyone came into FRYday fully briefed on the game plan.
Keep positions tight.
Do not overtrade.
Volatility is elevated.
Add in the backdrop:
• Escalating Iran conflict headlines
• Sellers firmly in control for weeks
• Oil spiking north of $100 per barrel
When that many headwinds stack up against the long side, the message becomes pretty simple:
Play defense… or don’t play at all.
That’s exactly why Capital Preservation sat at the very top of the priority list.
This wasn’t a day to force trades.
This was a day to protect capital, stay patient, and let the market show its hand.
As the legendary gambler philosopher Kenny Rogers reminded us:
“You’ve got to know when to hold ’em…
Know when to fold ’em…
Know when to walk away…
And know when to stand aside.”
Sometimes the best trade of the day…is the one you never take.
For greater detail of how this day unfolded, click on the Trading Room RECAP 3.6.26 link.
🎯 Cycle Day 3: GLOBEX Gap Lower
The Sunday evening GLOBEX session has opened with a jolt.
Crude oil is ripping north of $100 per barrel, and the index futures are responding accordingly — gapping lower out of the gate. The market is now staring directly at a critical structural level: the November 21, 2025 low at 6585. That level has moved from background reference… to immediate test target.
But let’s be clear about something.
PTG does not panic.
Professionals don’t react emotionally to volatility — they prepare for it.
When conditions shift, we don’t chase headlines or trade fear.
We follow the process:
Plan.
Prepare.
Execute when conditions align.
That’s the edge.
One of the greatest advantages we have as intra-day traders is simple but powerful:
Every session begins with a clean slate.
No baggage.
No overnight positions.
No emotional attachment.
Just structure… rhythm… and opportunity.
When price action and market structure begin to coalesce into recognizable patterns, then we engage.
Until then?
We observe.
As the old trading adage wisely reminds us:
“I’d rather be wishing I were in a trade… than in the wrong trade wishing I were out.”
Tonight and into tomorrow’s session the mission is straightforward:
• Identify the structure around 6585
• Watch how price accepts or rejects that zone
• Let the market reveal who is actually in control
Remember — volatility does not demand action.
Patience is a position.
And sometimes the most profitable trade is the one you don’t take.
So tonight’s mindset is simple:
Patience…
Patience…
Patience. ⏳📉
🎯 Cycle Day 3 Focus
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Stay in Control
Acceptance north of 6650 ±5
If buyers defend value and maintain acceptance above this pivot zone, upside continuation remains viable.
Initial Upside Objectives:
-
6690
-
6680
-
6670
Orderly trade. Controlled tempo. Inventory stays clean.
🔴 Bear Case — Rotation / Reset
Acceptance south of 6650 ±5
Failure to hold the pivot opens the door to rotation and balance repair.
Initial Downside Objectives:
-
6625
-
6620
-
6610
Note: Cycle Day 1 Average Decline Projection measures between 6619 – 6608 zone
📊 Key Reference Levels
-
PVA High Edge: 6777
-
PVA Low Edge: 6743
-
Prior POC: 6760
These are your magnets.
These are your battlegrounds.
These are the levels where professionals manage risk — not chase emotion.
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
ESH
Nasdaq (NQ)
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 → Cycle Day 3
The auction now shifts into the next phase.
What mattered yesterday was initiative.
What matters today is acceptance.
🎯 Cycle Day 3 Focus
Today is about structure — not noise.
We’re not chasing headlines.
We’re watching where price is accepted… and where it is rejected.
Markets move when participants commit.
Cycle Day 3 reveals whether buyers are prepared to defend control… or whether the market rotates to rebalance inventory.
🟢 Bull Case — Buyers Stay in Control
Acceptance north of 24330 ±10
If buyers defend this pivot and build value above it, the path of least resistance remains higher.
In that case, the market begins the process of extending the auction upward.
Initial Upside Objectives
• 24550
• 24475
• 24420
Acceptance above these levels opens the door for further initiative activity.
🔴 Bear Case — Rotation / Reset
Acceptance south of 24330 ±10
Lose the pivot… fail to reclaim it… and the tone shifts.
Instead of continuation, the market begins a rotation phase — working lower to rebalance positioning.
Initial Downside Objectives
• 24200
• 24160
• 24120
Below there, sellers begin testing the lower structural supports, and late longs may start reconsidering their life choices.
📊 Key Reference Levels
PVA High Edge: 24900
PVA Low Edge: 24711
Prior POC: 24832
These levels act as magnets within the auction.
They do not predict direction.
They attract price.
Professional traders do not predict.
They observe acceptance vs rejection…
then align with the side showing initiative and control.
Stay disciplined.
Stay structured.
Stay aligned.
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
NQH
Economic Calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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