Markets
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note is ticking lower, down 2 bps to 2.59%, as investors await a policy decision by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to keep rates steady and lower its “dot plot,” boosting U.S. stock index futures overnight by 0.2%. Jerome Powell has also signaled an announcement on when the Fed will end the runoff of its $4T portfolio later this year, as well as disclosing the right combination of Treasury’s to hold.
In Asia, Japan +0.2%. Hong Kong -0.5%. China flat. India +0.1%.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt -1.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude -0.9% to $58.78. Gold -0.3% to $1303. Bitcoin +0.5% to $3988.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 2.59%
Source: Seeking Alpha
7:00MBA Mortgage Applications
10:30EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PMFOMC Announcement
2:00 PMFOMC Forecast
2:00 PMChairman Press Conference
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S&P 500
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2828.00 (FULFILLED). Average Range for CD1 is 31.25 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 72% Odds of decline > 20 = 43%
CD1 Range High = 2859.00 CD1 Range Low = 2818.00 CD1 Range Avg = 31.25
Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 2838, THEN initial upside targets 2848 – 2852 zone.
Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 2838, THEN initial downside targets 2818 – 2812 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2019 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 2851.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2819.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2835.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2856.00; 10 Day Average True Range 23.50; VIX: 13.70
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 7366.75 (FULFILLED. Average Range for CD1 is 55.00 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 74% Odds of decline > 25 = 65%
CD1 Range High =7408.00 CD1 Range Low = 7337.50 CD1 Range Avg = 55.00
Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 7376.00, THEN initial upside targets 7396 – 7408 zone.
Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 7376.00, THEN initial downside targets 7355 – 7350 3 Day Central Pivot Zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2019 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 7427.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7318.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7355.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7420.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 75.00; VIX: 13.70
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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