Upside objectives have been achieved and exceeded for this Three-Day Cycle. The current upswing remains intact, so probabilities continue to favor bullish case…That said, Mr. Market can be and has been very fickle, so we won’t rule out decline…read that pullback…into recent range to balance out near the Three-Day Pivot Zone (2097 – 2095).
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…As stated, cycle targets have been achieved and exceeded, so the decline can begin at any time…Violation of 2105 – 2103 would increase odds of deeper downside…Until then, advantage goes to the Bulls.
Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 53% (both achieved and exceeded); Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible HOD = 2122.75 based upon average penetration of CD2 high on CD3; Possible LOD = 2093.50 based upon max average range on CD3.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract
Scenario 1: Bullish case requires that buyers continue to hold price above 2102 – 2105 zone…IF this occurs, and price can clear and convert 2108.50, THEN odds favor retest of PH (2115.00). Should this scenario unfold and convert the PH, then expansion targets 2119 handle, followed by 2121.25 – 2122.75, with TargetMaster Range Breakout Level 2127.25.
Scenario 2: As stated, cycle targets have been achieved, so decline could begin at anytime…Violation of 2102 handle would increase odds of pullback down to 2097 – 2095 Three-Day Central Pivot Zone (3DCPZ). Failure to hold this zone targets 2087.50 Violation Target.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee