Trade Strategy 09.24.14

***Note: This DTS Briefing Report was composed at 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday trade session.

Cycle Day 1 (CD1) certainly lived up to its reputation of probing for a new secure low…Downward price momentum hit and exceeded Average Range metrics closing on the lows of the session. Price has definitively violated the FED Day Low which constitutes a Change of Character (COC) opined in previous DTS. Any future price rallies may now be met with increased responsive selling pressures as money managers will seek to reduce or hedge Market Risk exposure.

Price has reached a current low of 1969.50 in after-hours trade following Tuesday’s settlement of 1972.50. It appears that price has nearly completed a symmetrical 5-Wave Down Pattern on the 60 minute chart. So it will be interesting to see if stabilization can develop with responsive buyers that view lower prices as good value.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 44%; Average Range on CD2 = 14.50; Max Range = 22.25

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF price can hold firm above Overnight Low, THEN there is a 57% chance price retracement back above settlement (1972.50). IF price can then hold above settlement, odds favor further strength which could push price to 1976 – 78 zone, followed by 1982-1984, up to key Decision Point Pivot (DPP) 1986 – 1988.

Scenario 2: Should price fail to rally and hold below settlement (1972.50), lower levels for critical responsive buying to develop would be 1966 – 1968 zone; 1963 – 65 STATX Zone; and Xtremes measuring 1958.50 – 1960.75.

Trade Strategy: Remaining aligned with the dominant force, which has been the Sellers most recently, has paid nicely with short-side profits. We commented in yesterday report to “not fighting the tape”, and remaining steadfast with our trade methodology…We will continue to do what has been working…Stackers and Premium and Discounts.

Remain Focused…Take the Trade…ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Eleven
I am courageous and I always act, even in the face of uncertainty and possible loss. Do not say, no fear. Feel the fear and act anyway. I may be frightened, but I still saddle up. I am not reckless. I act promptly in accordance with my methodology. I respect my calculations. I have a healthy respect and I balance that respect with my courage. I am an explorer. I am on a hero’s journey.


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