Trade Strategy 09.30.14

Early test of Cycle Day 1 (CD1) Low during Open Range held firm allowing price to rally reaching average range +14.50 handles. Continued strength in overnight has price up an additional +8 handles as of 8 am ET, securing another Positive 3-Day Bullish Cycle. End-of-Month window dressing may keep a firm bid underneath price throughout the session, but as we know, anything can and does happen, so remain alert today.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Odds of 3D Rally . 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 53%; Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Range = 21.25; Possible High Range on CD3 = 1976 – 1984 based upon 3-Day Bullish Cycle.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF prior day high (1974.00) is penetrated and converted, THEN there is a 35% chance of reaching initial Cycle Target of 1976.25, followed by expanded cycle targets between 1980.25 – 1984.00.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert prior day high (1974.00) suggests buying energy has run its course…Any pullback would target prior accepted zones for renewed buy response. Levels to be mindful of on any pullback are: PDVTMP 1964 – 66 zone; 1959.50 – 61.50 zone which represents CD1 low and prior day Initial Balance midpoint.

Trade Strategy: We will remain focused on trading the long side on pullbacks to key Decision Point Pivots (DPP’s). Overhead resistance zones such as 3D CPZ may offer short-side trade if there is a failed auction…So we are open-minded to trade in either direction. Focusing on what has been working…Bull/Bear Stacker and Premium & Discount Trade Setups.

Focus on Trading Process…Not Outcome…ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Three
I am willing to accept loss. Losing is an integral part of the process. I know and accept that individual losses and losing periods will happen. They are endemic to trading. I do not like loss. I do not expect loss. I simply accept loss as a cost of doing business.



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