Markets (Top Stories)
CPI generates “wait-and-see mode”
Markets largely remain in a “wait-and-see mode” as investors prepare for Thursday’s key consumer inflation report for December, which is likely to dictate sentiment ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting at the end of the month.
While the Fed has laid out a dovish projection for the path of borrowing costs in 2024, several policymakers have moved recently to temper optimism that a reduction could come early this year.
The crucial core figure is rising by 0.2% month-on-month, dragging the annual pace down to 3.8%, a level not seen since mid-2021. However, if inflation proves to be more sticky, equities could be hit hard.
Source: Investing.com
Economic Calendar
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price held bid at our stated Line-In-Sand (LIS) of 4785, as well as achieving upside cycle targets of 4815 & 4825 respectively, as outlined in prior DTS Briefing 1/10/24. Prior range was 42 handles on 1.300M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Today is the all-import Consumer Price Index (CPI) print @ 8:30 am, which can be a “wild-card” event for market response. As always, stay flexible and in-alignment with the primary intra-day forces. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4815, initially targets 4830 – 4835 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4815, initially targets 4805 – 4800 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4815 PVA Low Edge = 4790 Prior POC = 4805
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2024 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4863; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4777; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4790; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4827; 10 Day Average True Range 45; VIX: 12
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price held bid at our stated Line-In-Sand (LIS) of 16825, as well as achieve cycle objective of 16941 handle. Prior range was 181 handles on 544k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Today is the all-import Consumer Price Index (CPI) print @ 8:30 am, which can be a “wild-card” event for market response. As always, stay flexible and in-alignment with the primary intra-day forces. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 16940, initially targets 17016 – 17028 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 16940, initially targets 16917 – 16900 zone.
PVA High Edge = 16917 PVA Low Edge = 16817 Prior POC = 16863
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2024 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 17165; LOD ATR Range Projection: 16752; 3 Day Central Pivot: 16822; 3 Day Cycle Target: 16941; 10 Day Average True Range: 220; VIX: 12
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
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