Trade Strategy 1.11.24

Markets (Top Stories)

CPI generates “wait-and-see mode”

Markets largely remain in a “wait-and-see mode” as investors prepare for Thursday’s key consumer inflation report for December, which is likely to dictate sentiment ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting at the end of the month.

While the Fed has laid out a dovish projection for the path of borrowing costs in 2024, several policymakers have moved recently to temper optimism that a reduction could come early this year.

The crucial core figure is rising by 0.2% month-on-month, dragging the annual pace down to 3.8%, a level not seen since mid-2021. However, if inflation proves to be more sticky, equities could be hit hard.

Source: Investing.com

Economic Calendar

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price held bid at our stated Line-In-Sand (LIS) of 4785, as well as achieving upside cycle targets of 4815 & 4825 respectively, as outlined in prior DTS Briefing 1/10/24. Prior range was 42 handles on 1.300M contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Today is the all-import Consumer Price Index (CPI) print @ 8:30 am, which can be a “wild-card” event for market response. As always, stay flexible and in-alignment with the primary intra-day forces. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4815, initially targets 4830 – 4835 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4815, initially targets 4805 – 4800 zone.

PVA High Edge = 4815       PVA Low Edge = 4790         Prior POC = 4805

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2024 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4863; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4777; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4790; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4827; 10 Day Average True Range  45; VIX: 12

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price held bid at our stated Line-In-Sand (LIS) of 16825, as well as achieve cycle objective of 16941 handle. Prior range was 181 handles on 544k contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Today is the all-import Consumer Price Index (CPI) print @ 8:30 am, which can be a “wild-card” event for market response. As always, stay flexible and in-alignment with the primary intra-day forces. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 16940, initially targets 17016 – 17028 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 16940, initially targets 16917 – 16900 zone.

PVA High Edge = 16917       PVA Low Edge = 16817     Prior POC = 16863

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2024 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 17165; LOD ATR Range Projection: 16752; 3 Day Central Pivot: 16822; 3 Day Cycle Target: 16941; 10 Day Average True Range: 220; VIX: 12

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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