Markets
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
How aggressive will the Fed be in its fight against inflation? Investors hope to get some answers today from Chair Jay Powell, who will take the podium at 2:30 p.m. ET. On watch is the pace of interest rate increases, which are expected to begin in March and accelerate this year, to help slow the pace of price pressures that have plagued the U.S. economy for most of 2021. The Consumer Price Index even breached the 7% level in December, running at its highest annual pace in nearly 40 years.
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:30 PM Chairman Press Conference
8:30 International Trade in Goods (Advance)
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
11:30 Results of $26B, 2-Year FRN Auction
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
S&P 500
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): This session was a stabilization day to balance off the recent selling-spree. Price did recover the Cycle Day 1 Low during RTH, averting a failed cycle. Once that objective was fulfilled, price sold off nearly 100 handles from high tick to close approximately mid-range. Range was 130 handles on 2.407M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for this cycle measures 4320 which has been fulfilled during the previous session. Expectation for this cycle day is for continued stabilization. balancing as Mr. Market awaits FOMC Announcement. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4380, initially targets 4420 – 4425 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4380, initially targets 4350 – 4335 zone.
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
PVA High Edge = 4367 PVA Low Edge = 4311 Prior POC = 4349
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4417; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4311; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4366; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4425; 10 Day Average True Range 108; VIX: 28
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price is rallying pre-FED on hopes that Powell will deliver a more dovish position on interest rates, given recent market turmoil. Prior range was 609 handles on 946k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14275, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15380 – 15415 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14275, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14220 – 14125 zone.
PVA High Edge = 14275 PVA Low Edge = 14067 Prior POC = 14202
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14437; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13975; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14310; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14320; 10 Day Average True Range: 492; VIX: 28
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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