While stock index futures are down slightly to start the week, the market could continue its record-setting run with the S&P 500 already on track for a 7.2% gain in January. More than a fifth of the S&P 500 companies will release earnings this week, ranging from tech’s heaviest hitters to healthcare and big oil. If positive, January would be the 10th month of gains for the Dow and S&P, the best consecutive monthly winning streak since 1959.
In Asia, Japan flat. Hong Kong -0.6%. China -1%. India +0.7%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt -0.1%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.4%. Crude flat at $66.12. Gold -0.4% to $1346.40. Bitcoin -4.1% to $11213.
Ten-year Treasury Yield
Economic Calendar
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
S&P 500 (ES)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline measures 2859.00. Price reached extreme level with weekly close at new all-time highs. Expectation for today is more of normal CD1 with decline/pullback to absorb recent gains.
Scenario 1: IF price converts PC (2874.75), THEN expansion targets 2883 – 2887 zone.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PC (2874.75) opens door to decline initially measuring 2861, followed by 2859 – 2855 zone.
HOD ATR Range Projection: 2887.03; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2855.47; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2825.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2849.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2889.69; 10 Day Average True Range: 23.03; VIX: 11.82
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline measures 6982.33.
Scenario 1: IF price converts PC (7031.50), THEN expansion targets 7048, followed by 7052 – 56 zone.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PC (7031.50), THEN initial downside targets 7000.15, followed by 6989 – 6982 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ)
HOD ATR Range Projection: 7079.67; LOD ATR Range Projection: 6968.58; Cycle Day 1 Low: 6888.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 6961.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7058.66; 10 Day Average True Range: 78.67; VIX: 11.82
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN