Markets
Earnings season put a renewed spirit into the market yesterday, with big gains being seen across all three U.S. indices, while remarkable results from Apple helped U.S. futures continue the advance overnight. Besides a Fed rate decision later in the day, traders are looking forward to another busy session of corporate reporting, offsetting concerns for the rapidly spreading coronavirus.
In Asia, Japan +0.7%. Hong Kong -2.8%. China closed. India +0.6%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt flat.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude +0.8% to $53.90. Gold flat at $1569.90. Bitcoin +3.7% to $9289.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.62%
Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/
Economic Calendar
8:30 International trade in goods
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:00 PM Chairman Press Conference
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3); We noted in the Daily Trade Strategy Briefing: “Price is below Cycle Day 1 Low (3280.50) and should it stay below, then technically it will be registered as a “failed” cycle statistic. Rare in that this occurs only 10% of the time.”
We then stated: “Bulls have one objective today. Stem any further selling and recover CD1 Low 3280.50.” Bulls stampeded and pushed price higher recovering the CD1 Low (3280.50). With a 90% probability of this occurrence, Positive 3 Day Cycle Statistic was secured.
Today begins a new Cycle Day 1 (CD1), Normal is for a decline with the Average Decline measuring 3260 handle. Average Range recorded over 20 Cycles is 30.14 handles. Possible High for CD1 = 3297.55 IF Prior High (3285) Penetrated. Odds of Decline > 10 = 73%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 44%
CD1 Range High = 3303.00 CD1 Range Low = 3267.00 CD1 Range Avg = 30.25
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 3283, THEN initial upside targets 3295 – 3298 CD1 Penetration Zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 3283, THEN initial downside targets 3274 – 3272 3 Day Central Pivot Zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2020 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3307.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3258.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3273.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3302.00; 10 Day Average True Range 34.00; VIX: 15.38
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 9050.00. Average Range for CD1 is 106.00 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 75% Odds of decline > 25 = 67%
CD1 Range High = 9150.00 CD1 Range Low = 9098.00 CD1 Range Avg = 106.00
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 9125, THEN initial upside targets 9150 – 9158 CD1 Penetration Zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 9125, THEN initial downside targets 9098 – 9090 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2020 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 9213.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 9035.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 9078.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 9165.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 122.00; VIX: 15.38
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN