A 400-point opening decline is in store for the DJIA after the U.S. took out one of the most senior and revered generals in Iran, Qassem Soleimani (top Iraqi paramilitary commander Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes was also killed). Oil is moving in the opposite direction amid supply disruption fears, with crude futures ahead by 4% to $63.61/bbl, while safe haven gold is up 1.5% to $1551/oz to its highest level in almost four months.
Crude prices “will likely hold” around $70 a barrel, “but could make a run at $80 if the conflict spreads to the oil fields of southern Iraq or if Iranian harassment of commercial shipping intensifies,” analysts at Eurasia Group wrote in a research note.
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -0.1%. China -0.3%. India -0.4%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -1.7%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -1.4%. S&P -1.5%. Nasdaq -1.7%. Crude +4% to $63.61. Gold +1.5% to $1551. Bitcoin +2.5% to $7314.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -7 bps to 1.71%
Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:05 Fed’s Barkin: ”Is a Recession Around the Corner?”
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:15 PM Fed’s Evans: “Women in Central Banking”
1:15 PM Fed’s Brainard: “Women in Central Banking”
2:00 PM FOMC minutes
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 3239.00. Average Range for CD1 is 27.00 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 20 = 44%
****BREAKING**** Price has FULFILLED Cycle Day 1 Extreme Range Low Target of 3221 during Globex Session following reports of Iran’s General death in US Airstrikes!
CD1 Range High = 3247.00 CD1 Range Low = 3220.00 CD1 Range Avg = 27.00
Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 3232, THEN initial upside targets 3242 – 3252 zone.
Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 3232, THEN initial downside targets 3220 – 3215 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2020 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3247.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3220.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3236.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3257.00; 10 Day Average True Range 19.70; VIX: 15.25
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 8825 (FULFILLED & EXCEEDED). Average Range for CD1 is 95.00 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 75% Odds of decline > 25 = 67%
CD1 Range High =8834.00 CD1 Range Low = 8751.00 CD1 Range Avg = 95.00
Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 8782, THEN initial upside targets 8810 – 8824 zone.
Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 8782, THEN initial downside targets 8738 – 8721 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2020 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 8842.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 8738.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 8782.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 8848.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 78.75; VIX: 15.25
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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