The major U.S. stock averages are pointing to a lower open this morning, kicking off a week packed with macro events and major tech earnings. At the time of writing, Nasdaq 100 (NDX:IND) and S&P 500 futures (SPX) are off 1.4% and 1%, respectively, while contracts linked to the Dow (INDU) are 0.7% lower. The biggest item on the calendar will likely be the FOMC’s policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, and while the Fed looks certain to hike rates by a slower 25 bps pace, what’s not so clear is what comes next.
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price fulfilled upside target objectives to end a bullish week. Prior range was 52 handles on 1.526M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Having fulfilled Cycle Objectives, we will mark today as a “wild-card” to begin this week. Currently overnight and pre-RTH has price declining back to more neutral 4050 3 Day Central Pivot Zone. This week is filled with plenty of macro economic events (FOMC, NFP), coupled with a slew of earnings reports (20% of S&P, including AAPL on Thursday). As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4050, initially targets 4070 – 4075 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4050, initially targets 4030 – 4025 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4103 PVA Low Edge = 4075 Prior POC = 4085
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2023 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4101; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4024; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4050; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4103; 10 Day Average True Range 61; VIX: 20
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is currently trading lower to start the week, having fulfilled 3-Day Cycle Statistic. Macro economic reports, coupled with corporate earnings (AAPL on Thursday) should keep traders engaged with plenty of activity throughout the week. We’ll mark today as a “wild-card” for direction, as price is working off last week’s bullish rally. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 12050, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12140– 12150 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 12050, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12000 – 11990 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11302 PVA Low Edge = 12127 Prior POC = 12220
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12300; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11990; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12004; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12298; 10 Day Average True Range: 261; VIX: 20
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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