S&P 500 (ES)

Cycle Day 3 RECAP – “Wild Card Day” 🎴

With Cycle Targets already tagged on Cycle Day 2, JPOW stayed put (rates unchanged), and a few marquee tech names got their earnings out of the way, the market flipped the script and pulled the ripcord.

What followed?
A violent long-liquidation flush — the kind that reminds late-day heroes why markets don’t hand out participation trophies.

Price didn’t just head south…
It fled the northern tundra, sprinting toward the Gulf of America like it forgot its parka and heard margin calls were contagious.

This session also landed on T+1 — and that’s where the plot twist lived.

👉 After nearly $10B in MOC sell imbalances the prior session, $BIG Money calmly stepped back in on the sell-down, replacing high-cost inventory at bargain-basement prices.
👉 The proof? A $4.5B MOC Buy Imbalance to close the day.

Translation:
Retail panicked.
Fast money puked.
Smart money went shopping.

🎩 Well played. Very well played.

For greater detail of how this day unfolded, click on the Trading Room RECAP 1.29.26 link.

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…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

Cycle Day 1 Playbook: Reload Longs on Decline

Cycle Day 1 doing what Cycle Day 1 does — inventory reset before the next decision point.

A normal CD1 expects some magnitude of decline to rebalance inventory and offer better prices. Thanks to yesterday’s liquidation break, the CD1 projected average decline zone (6922–6905) has already been tagged. Check the box. ✔️

Now the focus shifts to retracement risk — specifically, whether yesterday afternoon’s inventory-adjustment rally gets faded.

Footnote:
It’s FRYday, and you already know the house rules…
🍟 CAPITAL PRESERVATION DAY 🍟
No forced trades. No emotional over-trading. Survive to Monday.

Bottom Line:
CD1 favors buying weakness, not chasing strength.
Stay patient. Let price come to you. Reload with intent — not adrenaline.

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The Two Pillars of the PTG Trade Plan

1️⃣ Stay Aligned with the Dominant Force
Think current, not prediction.

When price structure establishes a support zone, we don’t argue—we align. Bias shifts to a long-lean, and we patiently stalk entries via Stackers or the first PB ATR / Discount.
When structure flips? Same process, opposite direction. No emotion. No hero trades. Just flow.

Picture a surfer:
You don’t fight the wave—you paddle, position, and let gravity do the work.

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2️⃣ Trade from Statistical Range Extremes
Welcome to the wabbit hunt 🐇

PKB entries inside the D-Level Money Box (DLMB) Zones live here. And let’s be clear—this is not counter-trend trading. This is timing.

When range values stretch too far, Market Makers don’t chase—they set traps. Stops get flushed. Liquidity gets harvested. Price snaps back like a rubber band.

This is reversionary trading inside range-type rhythms—
high accuracy, repeatable, and ruthless when executed correctly.

Cue the imagery:
Lights dim. Liquidity pools glow. Stops line up like dominos.
M&M’s smile. Click. Run the stops.

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The Toolbox Matters—But the Hand Using It Matters More

The PTG Trader Toolbox has everything (yes, even the weird wrench you didn’t know you needed).
Your job isn’t to use everything.
Your job is to master the right tools for your plan.

The PTG Member’s Area is stacked—dozens of educational videos, real trade examples, and market walkthroughs designed to compress learning curves and eliminate guesswork.

And when the chart gets loud?
PTGDavid is always in the room.
Guiding. Grounding. Keeping traders on the right side of structure and statistics.

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Cycle Day 1 isn’t about being right.
It’s about being ready.

Strap in. Manage risk.
And let volatility do what it does best. 💥📊

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   ESH

Nasdaq (NQ)

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…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

Transition into Cycle Day 1: Decline or Stabilization

Cycle Day 1 always starts with a simple question and an annoying non-answer:
“Are we falling… or just catching our breath?”

The CD1 Average Decline Projection is measured straight off the Cycle Day 3 high. Once those cycle targets get tagged — and yes, they were — the seatbelt sign turns off.

🛫 “Traders Are Free to Move About the Cabin.”
Translation: the market owes nobody anything. If price wants to roll into the next decline leg, there’s no structural referee left to throw a flag.

Cue yesterday’s T+1 NQ liquidation break.
As flagged in the ES narrative, inventory repricing and replacement was handled with surgical precision. Clean. Efficient. Almost polite.

The only mess?
🩸 Skid marks from traders trying to catch falling knives while gravity was still very much clocked in.

Then came the afternoon “ripper-rally” — not a trend change, not a miracle, just the final inventory replacement ahead of month-end housekeeping.

📌 Bottom line:

• Decline pressure expressed ✔️

• Inventory reset completed ✔️

• Emotional traders punished ✔️

• Cycle mechanics still doing cycle-mechanic things ✔️

Mr. Market didn’t choose chaos or calm — he chose efficiency.

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Fast-forward to today.

Cycle Day 1 = gravity audit
Not a verdict. Not a prophecy. Just Mr. Market stepping on the scale and lying about his diet.

25669 = Average Decline…First back test level

• First real spot where dip buyers either show receipts or make excuses

• Holding = controlled digestion, continuation still on the menu

• Losing it = deeper snack run, same cycle, same rules

And the key part most people miss (and overthink anyway):

• CD1 dips are supposed to feel uncomfortable

• Strength doesn’t announce itself — it withstands annoyance

• Weak conviction always dies dramatically, preferably on social media

No predictions.
No narrative cosplay.
Just levels, reactions, and emotional discipline.

Trade the levels.
Laugh at the noise.
Protect capital like it’s meme-worthy.

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NQH 

 

Economic Calendar

 

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN