Markets
A new era of monetary policy is starting to hit investors in the face after previously estimating that any tightening would be limited and gradual. FOMC minutes released on Wednesday showed that officials were fully on board with a faster scale back of the central bank’s asset purchase program, which would give it greater flexibility to raise interest rates and could happen as soon as March. Stocks tanked on the news, with the Nasdaq ending the day down more than 3% for the worst start to a calendar year since the financial crisis
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Goods and Services Trade
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 Factory Orders
10:00 ISM Service Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal CD1 unfolded as selling spilled over into this session and accelerated following Fed Minutes release. Range was 98 handles on 1.777M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price has pushed to lower CD2 Violation Zone during overnight trade activity, but has since bounced back to CD1 Low (4690). Bulls will need to stabilize price above this level to squelch any further selling momentum. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4690, initially targets 4705 – 4710 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4690, initially targets 4670 – 4665 zone.
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4788 PVA Low Edge = 4723 Prior POC = 4780
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4716; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4655; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4761; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4753; 10 Day Average True Range 49; VIX: 20
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Tech Wreck unfolded for it’s second day of selling, pushing price down more than 3%. Prior range was 516.25 handles on 757k contracts traded. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 16250 PVA Low Edge = 15982 Prior POC = 16210
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 15715, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15753 – 15793 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 15715, THEN initial downside estimate targets 15640 – 16620 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15885; LOD ATR Range Projection: 15548; 3 Day Central Pivot: 16226; 3 Day Cycle Target: 160554; 10 Day Average True Range: 264; VIX: 20
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN