Markets (Top Stories)
Wednesday @ 7:30 CDT Producer Price Index values will be released: Producer prices in September are expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month versus a 0.7 percent increase in August. The annual rate in September is seen at 1.7 percent versus August’s 1.6 percent increase. September’s ex-food ex-energy rate is seen rising 0.2 percent on the month and 2.1 percent on the year versus August’s 0.2 percent on the month and 2.2 percent yearly rise.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Bulls expanded this Cycle’s Rally to Standard Deviation Extreme Levels before sharply reversing lower, settling near Mid-VWAP Zone. Prior range was 52 handles on 1.557M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 4385. We’ll be anticipating a more normal CD1 with mean reversion potential targeting 4370. As always, we will defer to Mr. Market for the final directional lean, so remaining flexible and following our trade rules is of primary focus. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4390, initially targets 4415 – 4420 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4390, initially targets 4375 – 4370 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4415 PVA Low Edge = 4387 Prior POC = 4395
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2023 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4457; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4326; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4352; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4428; 10 Day Average True Range 68; VIX: 17
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Bulls expanded this Cycle’s Rally to Standard Deviation Extreme Levels before sharply reversing lower, settling near Mid-VWAP Zone. Prior range was 211 handles on 639k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 15271. We’ll be anticipating a more normal CD1 with mean potential targeting 15195 HVN. As always, we will defer to Mr. Market for the final directional lean, so remaining flexible and following our trade rules is of primary focus. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 15290, initially targets 15355 – 15370 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 15290, initially targets 15215 – 15195 zone.
PVA High Edge = 15372 PVA Low Edge = 15240 Prior POC = 15290
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2023 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15570; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14995; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15128; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15580; 10 Day Average True Range: 295; VIX: 17
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN