8:30 Producer Price Index
10:00 Fed’s Kashkari Speech
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
1:00 PM Results of $32B, 10-Year Note Auction
1:45 PM Fed’s Barr Speech
2:00 PM FOMC Minutes
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal CD1 as price declined, established a new cycle low at 3579. Prior range was 74.25 handles on 2.346M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price weakness remains the prominent and dominant theme, albeit with wide swing volatility moves in excess of 1% intra-day. The BIG Event this week will be PPI & CPI back to back. Market’s are expected to remain “on-edge” until the read-through for the markets. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3600, initially targets 3625 – 3635 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3600, initially targets 3580 – 3575 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3619 PVA Low Edge = 3582 Prior POC = 3601
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 2 (CD2)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3688; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3530; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3643; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3664; 10 Day Average True Range 107; VIX: 33
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Cycle Day 1 Low was established at 10767.25 as high volatility remains the dominant theme ahead of the PPI/CPI releases this week. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 10900, THEN initial upside estimate targets 10960– 10980 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 10900, THEN initial downside estimate targets 10813 – 10770 zone.
PVA High Edge = 10978 PVA Low Edge = 10836 Prior POC = 10935
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 11171; LOD ATR Range Projection: 10648; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11045; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11094; 10 Day Average True Range: 382; VIX: 33
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN