Mr. Market’s Wild Ride
Tale of the tape: S&P futures peaked +1.57% ahead of the CPI release, bottomed out -2.4% and the S&P 500 closed +2.6% with a roundtrip intraday range of 5.52%, according to Deutsche Bank. The Dow rallied +1,400 points from its low. The Tick Index, which compares gainers to losers at any point, went from -1,900 to +1,900, the first time there have been such extreme numbers on either end, according to Bloomberg data going back to 1990.
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): This Cycle Day’s trading was one for the history books as “Wild Ride Clyde” made a spectacular appearance as “ALGO’s GONE WILD” were released from the asylum. Not only was this cycle positive, price fulfilled cycle target 3675 in a stunning reversal from the lower 3500 PUT WALL. Prior range was whopping 195.75 handles on 3.191M (triple the average) contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 3621. Normal for CD1 is a decline to find a new secure cycle low. Volatility remains elevated with wide intra-day swings, so stay vigilant on risk management. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3660, initially targets 3700 – 3710 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3660, initially targets 3630 – 3625 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3698 PVA Low Edge = 3557 Prior POC = 3684
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2022 (Z) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 10837. Prior range was 658 handles on 1.033M contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11000, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11160– 11253 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11000, THEN initial downside estimate targets 10876 – 10837 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11068 PVA Low Edge = 10965 Prior POC = 11012
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2022 (Z) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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