8:30 Housing Starts and Permits
1:00 PM Fed’s Kashkari Speech
1:00 PM Results of $12B, 20-Year Bond Auction
2:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book
6:30 PM Fed’s Evans Speech
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Oil sales from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve were only supposed to last until October, and then through November, but the Biden administration today will extend the releases into December. While the time frame keeps getting prolonged, the next 15M barrels coming to market will be part of the original 180M barrel release that was first authorized in March – due to inflationary shocks from the war in Ukraine. So far, 165M barrels have been sold from the SPR this year, bringing volumes in the emergency stockpile to just 405M barrels, marking their lowest level since 1984.
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Markets continued to expand this cycle’s rally exceeding target objectives. Prior range was 80 handles on 2.692M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measure 3698. Bulls have firm control with a successful retest of 3700 during prior session with a strong close near 3750. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3725, initially targets 3750 – 3760 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3725, initially targets 3710 – 3700 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3748 PVA Low Edge = 3708 Prior POC = 3727
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3818; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3678; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3682; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3615; 10 Day Average True Range 102; VIX: 31
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline measures 11120 for this Cycle Day 1. Price is trading lower during overnight trade activity near the lower target (11120). As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11120, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11250– 11290 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11120, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11082 – 11048 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11331 PVA Low Edge = 11147 Prior POC = 11188
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 11532; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11024; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11062; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11529; 10 Day Average True Range: 376; VIX: 31
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN