Rising Treasury yields and an aggressive Federal Reserve has sent mortgage rates soaring this year, with things doubling over the course of 2022. In fact, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.08% with an average 0.8 point for the week ending Oct. 27, up from last week when it averaged 6.94% and higher than 3.14% a year ago, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey. The developments are starting to cool real estate prices, with the increase in borrowing costs locking many potential customers out of the market.
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal CD1 as price declined, established a new cycle low at 3757.50. Prior range was 85 handles on 2.048M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): After hours Tech Earnings jammed price lower establishing a deep CD1 Low (3757.50). Overnight trade has price trading higher and consolidating between 3775 – 3810. We’ll use this zone as our initial sand box with a LIS @ 3790. Normal for CD2 is for some consolidation to balance recent sessions. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3790, initially targets 3815 – 3825 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3790, initially targets 3775 – 3770 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3863 PVA Low Edge = 3828 Prior POC = 3844
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2022 (Z) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Cycle Day 1 Low was established at 10921.50 as Tech Earnings blasted price lower in after-hours trading. Price has recovered from the deep low and currently trading pre-RTH between 11190 – 11050. Normal for CD2 is for some consolidation of recent sessions. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11125, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11190– 11210 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11125, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11075 – 11050 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11422 PVA Low Edge = 11233 Prior POC = 11287
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2022 (Z) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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