Markets (Top Stories)
Friday’s report is likely to be a key factor in the Fed’s next interest rate decision. Officials held the rate steady when they met in September, hoping to see how their policy actions to date have worked to cool inflation from last year’s multiyear highs. Prices have come down but some pockets of the market are still behind. Housing market dynamics are tricky, with high prices, low inventory, and soaring mortgage rates keeping would-be buyers at bay.
Futures traders largely expect the Fed will hold tight again in November and not raise rates, though the probability of a rate hike in December is slightly higher based on futures market expectations.
Here are three things that could affect markets:
1. Jobs report
The September jobs report is due out at 8:30 ET (12:30 GMT). Analysts expect a reading of 170,000, down slightly from the prior month.
2. Unemployment rate
The unemployment rate comes out at the same time. Analysts expect it to tick lower in September from the prior month, to 3.7% from 3.8%.
3. Consumer credit
The consumer credit reading for August comes out at 15:00 ET. Analysts expect a reading of $11.7 billion, up from $10.4 billion the prior month.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Positive Three-Day Cycle as price oscillated between 4250 – 4300 in a “balancing act” within multi-day value zone. Prior range was 44 handles on 1.623M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline measures 4267. Non-Farm Payrolls is today’s “wild-card” and may prove to be a critical chess piece for the market to break the current consolidation. There is a wide array of estimates among “analysts” for today’s release. All that PTG is concerned with is “How the Market Responds!.” So remain flexible for potential directional flows. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4290, initially targets 4315 – 4320 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4290, initially targets 4275 – 4265 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4297 PVA Low Edge = 4275 Prior POC = 4291
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2023 (Z) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Positive Three-Day Cycle as price oscillated between 14720 – 14920 in a “balancing act” within multi-day value zone. Prior range was 242 handles on 667k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline measures 14702. Non-Farm Payrolls is today’s “wild-card” and may prove to be a critical chess piece for the market to break the current consolidation. There is a wide array of estimates among “analysts” for today’s release. All that PTG is concerned with is “How the Market Responds!.” So remain flexible for potential directional flows. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 14870, initially targets 14940 – 14960 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 14870, initially targets 14780 – 14770 zone.
PVA High Edge = 14936 PVA Low Edge = 14885 Prior POC = 14915
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2023 (Z) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN