Markets
FOMC policymakers and investors will be closely watching the September jobs report this morning – released at 8:30 a.m. ET – for clues on how much the economy is slowing. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to slip to 250K in September from 315K in August, while economists expect the unemployment rate to hold at 3.7%. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are expected to increase 5.1% from a year ago, little changed from the 5.2% Y/Y jump seen in August, though any deviation could signal that the Fed needs to get even more aggressive on inflation.
Economic Calendar
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
10:00 Fed’s Williams Speech
10:00 Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
11:00 Fed’s Kashkari Speech
12:00 PM Fed’s Bostic Speech
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM Consumer Credit
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
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S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal CD1 as price declined establishing a low at 3750. Range was 69.50 handles, on 2.101M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normally we would be looking for some consolidation, as traders await the Non-Farm Payrolls “Jobs” Report. No change in volatility estimates with SG Implied 1-Day Move of 1.26% (47 handles). As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3750, initially targets 3775 – 3785 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3750, initially targets 3720 – 3700 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3785 PVA Low Edge = 3757 Prior POC = 3768
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3838; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3655; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3775; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3852; 10 Day Average True Range; 106; VIX: 30
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Cycle Low was established at 11505 during prior session. Market’s are quiet ahead of today’s Non Farm Payroll “Jobs” Report. Volatility remains elevated as end of week shuffle for Cycle Day 2 is expected to be active. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 11505, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11575 – 11585 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 11505, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11420– 11400 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11632 PVA Low Edge = 11538 Prior POC = 11575
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 11822; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11195; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11561; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11855; 10 Day Average True Range: 370; VIX: 30
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN