FOMC policymakers and investors will be closely watching the September jobs report this morning – released at 8:30 a.m. ET – for clues on how much the economy is slowing. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to slip to 250K in September from 315K in August, while economists expect the unemployment rate to hold at 3.7%. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are expected to increase 5.1% from a year ago, little changed from the 5.2% Y/Y jump seen in August, though any deviation could signal that the Fed needs to get even more aggressive on inflation.
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
10:00 Fed’s Williams Speech
10:00 Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
11:00 Fed’s Kashkari Speech
12:00 PM Fed’s Bostic Speech
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM Consumer Credit
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal CD1 as price declined establishing a low at 3750. Range was 69.50 handles, on 2.101M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normally we would be looking for some consolidation, as traders await the Non-Farm Payrolls “Jobs” Report. No change in volatility estimates with SG Implied 1-Day Move of 1.26% (47 handles). As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3750, initially targets 3775 – 3785 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3750, initially targets 3720 – 3700 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3785 PVA Low Edge = 3757 Prior POC = 3768
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2022 (Z) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Cycle Low was established at 11505 during prior session. Market’s are quiet ahead of today’s Non Farm Payroll “Jobs” Report. Volatility remains elevated as end of week shuffle for Cycle Day 2 is expected to be active. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 11505, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11575 – 11585 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 11505, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11420– 11400 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11632 PVA Low Edge = 11538 Prior POC = 11575
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2022 (Z) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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