Markets (Top Stories)
While a refunding announcement from the U.S. Treasury will be closely watched by the market this morning, the latest monetary policy stance at the Federal Reserve is also on the radar this afternoon. The FOMC is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 5.25%-5.50% for the second straight meeting, but is also likely to keep the door open for further tightening if needed. The wait-and-see approach has led many investors to put a strong emphasis on incoming economic data, but there won’t be any new economic projections at this meeting, putting a bigger spotlight on Fed Chair Jay Powell’s policy statement and press conference.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Market continued to extend this cycle’s rally fulfilling upper Penetration Level (4210.75). Prior range was 48 handles on 1.756M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Markets may retest prior high before the next decline unfolds. Today is FED DAY with the FOMC Statement @ 2pm followed by Presser @ 2:30 ET. We are anticipating relatively quiet trading ahead of the release, with potential for seesaw action thereafter. Today is also Cycle Day 1 with Average Decline measuring 4180 handle. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4200, initially targets 4230 – 4240 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4200, initially targets 4180 – 4170 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4210 PVA Low Edge = 4182 Prior POC = 4188
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2023 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4263; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4144; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4172; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4266; 10 Day Average True Range 62; VIX: 18
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Market continued to extend this cycle’s rally fulfilling upper 14500 target per DTS 10.31.23 “Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 14410, initially targets 14470 – 14500 zone.” Prior range was 192 handles on 708k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Markets may retest prior high before the next decline unfolds. Today is FED DAY with the FOMC Statement @ 2pm followed by Presser @ 2:30 ET. We are anticipating relatively quiet trading ahead of the release, with potential for seesaw action thereafter. Today is also Cycle Day 1 with Average Decline measuring 14224 handle. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 14460, initially targets 14525 – 14555 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 14460, initially targets 14405 – 14385 zone.
PVA High Edge = 14476 PVA Low Edge = 14368 Prior POC = 14398
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2023 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14722; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14202; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14371; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14720; 10 Day Average True Range: 275; VIX: 18
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN