Markets (Top Stories)
The latest indicator on inflation will be published today at 8:30 AM as the Labor Department releases its report on the Consumer Price Index for October. Investors are hoping that there will be signs that inflation continues to dissipate, but if those signs aren’t there or there are surprises, it could risk the chance of another interest rate hike in December. Another item to be aware of is new changes to the calculation methodology of health insurance costs. That could result in the category becoming a net contributor to inflation, and will be noted by market watchers and the Federal Reserve.
By the numbers: October’s CPI is expected to rise only 0.1% M/M, compared with a 0.4% increase in September. On a Y/Y basis, it’s expected to rise by 3.3%, down from 3.7% in the previous month. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is anticipated to increase by 0.3% M/M, the same rate of increase as in September. Y/Y, economists, on average, project a 4.1% rise in October, also unchanged from the September rate of inflation
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Positive 3-Day Cycle statistic was fulfilled, as price action took a breather, consolidating in the upper quartile of recent trading range (see screenshot). Prior range was 29 handles on 1.226M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline measures 4402. All important Consumer Price Index (CPI) due to be released @ 8:30 am. Potential for a “market-mover” always exists especially if there is a surprise. Bulls continue to dominate, so ball-control will be theirs to lose. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4425, initially targets 4435 – 4440 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4425, initially targets 4410 – 4405 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4434 PVA Low Edge = 4317 Prior POC = 4428
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2023 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4479; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4374; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4391; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4508; 10 Day Average True Range 53; VIX: 14
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Positive 3-Day Cycle statistic was fulfilled, as price action took a breather, consolidating in the upper quartile of recent trading range. Prior range was 136 handles on 526k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline measures 15488. All important Consumer Price Index (CPI) due to be released @ 8:30 am. Potential for a “market-mover” always exists especially if there is a surprise. Bulls continue to dominate, so ball-control will be theirs to lose. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 15555, initially targets 15640 – 15670 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 15555, initially targets 15490 – 15465 zone.
PVA High Edge = 15579 PVA Low Edge = 15526 Prior POC = 15549
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2023 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15788; LOD ATR Range Projection: 15326; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15379; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15876; 10 Day Average True Range: 236; VIX: 14
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
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