Trade Strategy 11.18.24

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Markets notched a negative week as long-liquidation post FOMC and Presidential Election  have now completed round-trip. Throughout last week DTS Briefing has been guiding our community to be mindful of potential decline.

“Risk of sharp pullback/decline is now elevated given impactful news events (Election…FOMC) are now in the rearview mirror. Profit-taking becomes a real possibility should the FOMO buyers decide to take a step back.”

As sharp as this past weeks decline was, price has only retreated approximately 50% of 11/4 – 11/8 week with price holding the 5 EMA @ 5900. IF this a “garden-variety” decline just relieving the “election-excitement”, THEN we should be anticipating the BTFD crowd to step-in soon. 

For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 11.15.24

Check out the link to learn more about the Taylor 3-Day Cycle and secure your FREE TRIAL.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

Transition into Cycle Day 1: Previous session’s decline has fulfilled the CD1 Low average decline projection, so we’ll be monitoring price action carefully for signs of possible reversal/short squeeze scenario.

Should a retest of CD3 Low unfold, be mindful for potential Look Below and Fail/Reversal (i.e. Whiplash Trade). As on the way down where levels were broken, so will be on the way back up. Market will be in search of zonal acceptance balance.

So with this in mind, our “game-play” will remain true to our discipline in maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces which continues to serve us well, so stay the course.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5890, initially targets 5915 – 5930 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5890, initially targets 5875 – 5855 zone.

PVA High Edge = 5915     PVA Low Edge = 5880         Prior POC = 5891

   ES (Profile)

 

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: NAZ has declined back into October’s multi-composite Point of Control (20440), so this week will be decisive on whether the BTFD crowd returns to bargain hunting. Prior session range was 576 handles on 673K contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

Transition into Cycle Day 1: Previous session’s decline has fulfilled the CD1 Low average decline projection, so we’ll be monitoring price action carefully for signs of possible reversal/short squeeze scenario.

Should a retest of CD3 Low unfold, be mindful for potential Look Below and Fail/Reversal (i.e. Whiplash Trade). As on the way down where levels were broken, so will be on the way back up. Market will be in search of zonal acceptance balance.

So with this in mind, our “game-play” will remain true to our discipline in maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces which continues to serve us well, so stay the course.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 20500, initially targets 20670– 20705 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 20500, initially targets 20405 – 20325 zone.

PVA High Edge = 20674      PVA Low Edge = 20406         Prior POC = 21496

NQ Chart (Profile)

Economic Calendar

 

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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