Sentiment was particularly dented after New York City shut schools and switched to fully remote learning for its students because of rising cases of COVID-19. U.S. stock index futures fell 0.4% overnight on the news after bouncing around the flat line for most of Wednesday, only to turn south in the final hour of trading.
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
8:30 Fed’s Mester: “Stress, Contagion, and Transmission”
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:00 Existing Home Sales
10:00 E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
12:35 PM Fed’s Bowman: “Stress, Contagion, and Transmission”
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Failure to expand price above prior highs lead to afternoon breakdown once key support (3600) relinquished support. Range was 66.75 handles on 1.270M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 is a decline with the average measuring 3557 which has been fulfilled during GLOBEX Session. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3557, initially targets 3570 – 3575 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3557, initially targets 3545 – 3540 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3616 PVA Low Edge = 3593 Prior POC = 3612
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2020 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3602; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3513; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3601; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3575; 10 Day Average True Range 60; VIX: 23.50
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Similar to @ES, price failed to expand above prior highs, which lead to afternoon sell down. Globex trade action is showing wide swings within developing value. Average CD1 Decline measures 11716 handle. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider.
PVA High Edge = 11996 PVA Low Edge = 11937 Prior POC = 11964
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 11854, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11880 – 11890 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 11854, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11830 – 11810 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2020 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12040; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11668; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11971; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11895; 10 Day Average True Range: 235; VIX: 23.50
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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