Another jumbo rate hike from the Fed is on tap this afternoon, with the central bank likely to announce its fourth 75 basis point move of the year. The hikes have so far added 3 percentage points to the federal funds rate in 2022 (which now ranges between 3.00% to 3.25%) and an increase today would bring it close to the 4-point mark that was last delivered in 1979 and 1980. The Fed is also predicted to announce another hefty increase in December to set a new record, though many are debating whether it will signal a downshift in its aggressiveness.
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***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal CD1 as price declined and established a low at 3852.50. Prior range was 75 handles on 1.830M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is for some consolidation of prior decline, although today is “FED DAY” with Presser at 2:30 following the 75 bps announcement. Volatility is expected to expand, so be sure to manage position risk aggressively. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3850, initially targets 3875 – 3880 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3850, initially targets 3835 – 3830 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3883 PVA Low Edge = 3856 Prior POC = 3865
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 2 (CD2)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2022 (Z) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…FED DAY on tap for this session as expected volatility swings to drive the action today during Presser. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11288, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11380– 11400 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11288, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11255 – 11245 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11470 PVA Low Edge = 11307 Prior POC = 11345
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2022 (Z) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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