Stocks had a happy session going into Thanksgiving and the sentiment may hold up after the turkey. Futures are inching up on the idea that central banks will have to respond to a growth slowdown as risks of financial system instability grow louder. The need to moderate on aggressive monetary policy was also present in Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting, though some caution that it was the same usual chatter and only a perceived shift in tone.
Black Friday schedule: The stock market will shut early at 1 p.m. today, bond markets will close an hour later, while metals and U.S. crude oil will settle at 12:30 p.m. and 1:30 p.m., respectively.
No Events Scheduled
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Bullish lean dominated ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday here in the U.S.A. Volumes and range contracted as traders are taking a restful break from the screens. Prior range was 37 handles on 1.229M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 3963. Normal for CD1 is a decline to find a new secure cycle low. Overnight/pre-RTH activity has price quietly drifting lower in a relatively narrow range post-holiday trade. Keep in mind today, Friday is half session until 1 pm. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4040, initially targets 4055 – 4060 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4040, initially targets 4025 – 4020 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4045 PVA Low Edge = 4040 Prior POC = 4042
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2022 (Z) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 11588. Normal for CD1 is a decline to find a new secure cycle low. Overnight/pre-RTH activity has price quietly drifting lower in a relatively narrow range post-holiday trade. Keep in mind today, Friday is half session until 1 pm. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11873, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11900– 11925 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11873, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11825 – 11815 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11923 PVA Low Edge = 11896 Prior POC = 11921
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2022 (Z) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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