8:15 ADP Jobs Report
8:30 GDP Q3
8:30 International Trade in Goods (Advance)
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
8:50 Fed’s Bowman: “The Future of Small Banks”
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
12:35 PM Fed’s Cook Speech
1:30 PM Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook
2:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book
3:00 PM Farm Prices
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price traded lower throughout the session but lacked the acceleration of previous sessions. This was a “failed” Three-Day Cycle as price could not recover prior CD1 Low. Prior range was 49 handles on 1.444M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 is for decline with the average measuring 3906 handle. Lots of economic releases on deck today, as well as JPOW speaking @ 1:30 et and Beige Book @ 2:00 et. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3960, initially targets 3990 – 3995 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3960, initially targets 3930 – 3925 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3971 PVA Low Edge = 3949 Prior POC = 3960
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4012; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3922; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3995; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4046; 10 Day Average True Range 56; VIX: 22
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal for CD1 is for decline with the average measuring 11365 handle. Lots of economic releases on deck today, as well as JPOW speaking @ 1:30 ET and Beige Book @ 2:00 ET. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11515, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11575– 11600 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11515, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11465 – 11450 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11598 PVA Low Edge = 11465 Prior POC = 11515
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 11735; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11348; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11684; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11832; 10 Day Average True Range: 238; VIX: 22
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN