Headline inflation today is forecast to show growth of 6.8% Y/Y in November, which would be the highest level since the summer of 1982, and overtake the 6.2% increase seen in October. Core CPI is also expected to come in at a flaming 4.9%, prompting Fed Chair Jerome Powell to recently ditch his outlook of “transitory” inflation. Contributing to the surge is resilient demand and unprecedented stimulus, as well as transportation logjams and shortages of both supplies and labor.
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal CD1 as early price strength ultimately succumbed to increased selling pressure, declining into the closing bell. Range was 44 handles on 1.205M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
NOTE: Contract Rollover: Front Month March (H) 2022. Scenarios are for the ESH
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price is bouncing back from late day selling, currently trading near 5-day POC 4680. With contract rollover underway, we are anticipating a muted session as volumes migrate to the front month. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4680, initially targets 4690 – 4695 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4680, initially targets 4665 – 4660 zone.
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4685 PVA Low Edge = 4670 Prior POC = 4677
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NQ is trading off the deep low set during late day decline. With contract rollover underway, we are anticipating a more muted session as a Cycle Day 2 normal. Prior range was 300 handles on 571k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 16402 PVA Low Edge = 16267 Prior POC = 16338
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 16180, THEN initial upside estimate targets 16240 – 16260 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 16180, THEN initial downside estimate targets 16150 – 16125 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN