Traders don’t seem to think that the latest inflation report will come in hot this morning, and neither do economists. The Consumer Price Index is expected to cool off again in November, falling for a fifth straight month to a pace of 7.3% Y/Y, and down from a record 9.1% notched back in June. Equities climbed Monday on expectations that a softer CPI will permit the Fed to slow down the pace of its aggressive rate hikes
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Trend up unfolded for this cycle day recovering from previous end of week sell-off. Prior range was 70 handles on 1.094M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 3943. Normal for CD1 is a decline to find a new secure cycle low. Overnight and pre-RTH price is extending this current trend-up in anticipation of today’s CPI print, which Mr. Market is perceiving as potential dovish (lower) ahead of FOMC. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4025, initially targets 4055 – 4060 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4025, initially targets 4005 – 3995 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3997 PVA Low Edge = 3969 Prior POC = 3979
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2023 (H) Contract
asdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 11500. Normal for CD1 is a decline to find a new secure cycle low. Overnight and pre-RTH price is extending this current trend-up in anticipation of today’s CPI print, which Mr. Market is perceiving as potential dovish (lower) ahead of FOMC. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11835, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11920– 11950 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11835, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11755 – 11745 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11727 PVA Low Edge = 11660 Prior POC = 11710
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2023 (H) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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