Markets (Top Stories)
Some day, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions may once again be like watching paint dry. We’re not there yet. To be sure, very few see any chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will change the federal funds rate target range from its current 5.25%-5.50% level at the end of its meeting on Wednesday. Market participants will focus on when the Fed will start cutting rates, and will look for clues in the policymakers’ dot plot and in Chair Jerome Powell’s language during his press conference.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price extended this cycle’s rally fulfilling 4700 target outlined in prior DTS 12.12.23 briefing. Prior range was 39 handles on 1.165M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today is the FOMC Statement and Presser, so we will defer to the market’s reaction for direction, though the bulls hold a commanding structural position. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4700, initially targets 4715 – 4720 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4700, initially targets 4685 – 4680 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4704 PVA Low Edge = 4668 Prior POC = 4682
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2024 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4741; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4662; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4648; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4757; 10 Day Average True Range 41; VIX: 12
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price extended this cycle’s rally fulfilling 16575 target outlined in prior DTS 12.12.23 briefing. Prior range was 203 handles on 513k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today is the FOMC Statement and Presser, so we will defer to the market’s reaction for direction, though the bulls hold a commanding structural position. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 16600, initially targets 16700 – 16730 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 16600, initially targets 16530 – 16500 zone.
PVA High Edge = 16513 PVA Low Edge = 16422 Prior POC = 16467
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2024 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 16818; LOD ATR Range Projection: 16385; 3 Day Central Pivot: 16388; 3 Day Cycle Target: 16822; 10 Day Average True Range: 228; VIX: 12
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN