S&P 500 (ES)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: “Range Runners, Soap Slips & IEDs in the Tape”
Tuesday delivered exactly what disciplined traders love and impatient traders hate: a trappy, expiration-tinged Range Runner session packed with head-fakes, V-bottoms, V-tops, and perfectly engineered liquidity grabs.
The Morning Briefing: Levels Don’t Lie
The 6865 battle line — yesterday’s lower target — once again proved to be the session’s defining fulcrum.
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Bull Scenario: Sustain bids above 6865 ± → target 6885–6890
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Bear Scenario: Sustain offers below 6865 ± → target 6845–6840
And in textbook PTG fashion…
👉 BOTH upper and lower target zones were tagged with laser precision.
No predictions. Just execution.
For greater detail of how this day unfolded, click on the Trading Room RECAP 12.16.25 link.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
Transition into Cycle Day 1: We begin a fresh new cycle, officially rolling forward into the March (H) 2026 contract. The average decline projection for Cycle Day 1 comes in at 6798.42, setting the tone for a controlled, methodical downside probe rather than a disorderly liquidation.
Post-FOMC rhythms continue to favor a sell-the-rip / sell-the-dip hybrid, with the broader lean progressively lower. That said, this is not a market where the Bulls have abandoned the BTFD religion. Quite the opposite — dip buyers remain very much alive, actively repricing year-end inventory, while motivated sellers look to lighten exposure into strength.
This two-way trade dovetails perfectly with Cycle Day 1’s expected decline structure — the market’s favorite setup for locating a secure low from which to stage the next cycle rally.
⚔️ Key Line in the Sand
6830
Whoever owns this level controls the narrative, dominates the forward structure, and effectively starts writing the year-end storyline.
📈 Upside Levels of Interest
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6860
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6865
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6880
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6890
📉 Downside Levels of Interest
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6805
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6798.42 (Cycle projection)
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6793
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6780
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6830+-, initially targets 6855 – 6865 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6830+-, initially targets 6805 – 6795 zone.
PVA High Edge = 6864 PVA Low Edge = 6831 Prior POC = 6855
ESH
Nasdaq (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Range-Runner Wild Ryde Clyde Edition
The market delivered exactly what NQ is notorious for: unstructured chaos dressed up as opportunity. Traders buckled in for a Wild-Card session… and got a full-tilt Range-Runner Wild Ryde Clyde instead.
Price whipped no fewer than nine times, with rotations spanning 140 to 270 points, ultimately settling back mid-range at 25,320.
Through a Wyckoff lens: Effort vs. Result. The NQ huffed and puffed, expending significant energy, yet the closing outcome failed to justify the effort. Plenty of activity… very little progress, relentless motion, negligible displacement.
Liquidity got worked, patience got tested, and conviction traders were reminded that not all movement equals progress.
If you want to learn how these levels are spotted before the crowd panics…
👉 Join the PTG Army.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
Transition into Cycle Day 1: “Spinning Wheels Going Round and Round”
According to BofA, the Magnificent 7 (MAGS-7) remain the most crowded trade for the second consecutive month. Layer on the ever-present AI trade, and the volatility potential becomes painfully obvious — and fast.
Now toss in the intra-day influence of 0DTE options, and suddenly “Wild Ryde Clyde” days aren’t the exception… they’re the feature presentation.
This isn’t investing.
This isn’t even traditional trading.
This is a mosh pit — elbows up, helmets optional.
Under normal circumstances, Cycle Day 1 leans toward downside pressure. However, given current market rhythms, the tape may continue its rotational shenanigans before a cleaner directional push finally emerges. Translation: patience over prediction, execution over opinion.
Upside Levels of Interest:
25340 → 25375 → 25420
Downside Levels of Interest:
25265 → 25225 → 25195
Spin the wheels carefully — momentum will eventually choose a lane.
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 25300+-, initially targets 25375 – 25420 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 25300+-, initially targets 25265 – 25225 zone.
PVA High Edge = 25345 PVA Low Edge = 25212 Prior POC = 25248
NQH
Economic Calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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