The release of November’s non-farms payroll report at 8:30 a.m. ET is expected to show that jobs growth is continuing to slow as the Feds aggressive rate hike path starts to rein in consumer and business spending. Economists expect 200K jobs will be added during the month, down from 261K in October, while the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 3.7%, near a 50-year low. Some other recent economic reports back up the expectation for a slower increase in jobs – the ADP November report, October JOLTS, and an increased number of firing announcements
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal CD2 as price consolidated, creating a “DELTA” shaped volume profile. Newly created Value Area spans 4072 – 4092, which is our current “sandbox.” Range was 56 handles on 1.760M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Three-day Cycle Targets have been fulfilled, so we’ll mark today as a “wild-card.” Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) takes center-stage, as traders continue to look for evidence to support JPOW’s recent dovish rhetorical jib-jab. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains bid above 4080, initially targets 4100 – 4110 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains offer below 4080, initially targets 4060 – 4055 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4092 PVA Low Edge = 4072 Prior POC = 4079
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2022 (Z) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Three-day Cycle Targets have been fulfilled, so we’ll mark today as a “wild-card.” Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) takes center-stage, as traders continue to look for evidence to support JPOW’s recent dovish rhetorical jib-jab. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 12050, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12000 – 12110 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 12050, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11980 – 11970 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12086 PVA Low Edge = 12020 Prior POC = 12065
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2022 (Z) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN6.22.22