More stock records seem to be in store for today, with futures ahead by 0.5%, after the signing of a COVID relief bill that lifted reopening plays like cruise lines, airlines and casinos. Megacaps led the major averages on Monday, while nine of the 11 S&P sectors ended in the green amid continuing support for the Santa Claus rally.
The S&P 500 is up 15.6% for the year and the Dow has advanced 6.5%, while the Nasdaq has soared more than 43% despite the pandemic.
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
1:00 PM Results of $59B, 7-Year Note Auction
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Trader Vic Gap Rule (TVGR) took firm hold on yesterday’s open and never looked back, grinding ever higher to new all-time highs. Range was 56.25 handles on 731k contracts exchanged.
“The Trader Vic Gap Rule (TVGR) “If there is a gap, and it is going to reverse, it will do so 10-15 minutes after the opening 95% of the time. Please believe me on the odds, they are real. If the market continues in the direction of the gap after 10 to 15 minutes, it is a strong sign that the move will continue for the rest of the day, closing in that direction as well. Even if the market reverses after the 10-15 minute period, if it fails to fill the gap, odds are that the market will close in the direction of the gap.”
This Rule is cited from Victor Sperandeoâs book: Trader Vic II: Principles of Professional Speculation, pg. 231
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 is some magnitude decline, with average measuring 3687. Overnight price has pushed above PH (3732.25) fulfilling 3743 CD1 Penetration Level. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3743, initially targets 3754 – 3756 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3743, initially targets 3735 – 3732 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3732 PVA Low Edge = 3721 Prior POC = 3727
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2021 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3766; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3711; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3694; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3796; 10 Day Average True Range 37; VIX: 22
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price is trading above prior session’s value zone and has fulfilled 12882 CD1 Penetration Level.. Prior Range was 200 handles on 341k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 12853 PVA Low Edge = 12791 Prior POC = 12836
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 12887, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12900 – 12920 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 12887, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12863 – 12855 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2021 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12984; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12756; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12715; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12934; 10 Day Average True Range: 143; VIX: 22
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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