S&P 500 (ES)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Positive 3-Day Cycle Statistic (91%) remains intact as price traded above the CD1 Low (6041.25) and fulfilled its initial target (6085). Overall activity was muted as traders await the all-import CPI Report. Range for this session was 41 handles on 984k contracts exchanged.
FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle
For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 2.11.25
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
Transition into Cycle Day 1: Today begins a new cycle with the objective to establish a secure low from which to stage the next rally.
Odds of Decline > 10 = 79%…> 20 = 56%
Traders have been in a “holding-pattern” ahead of the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) print today @ 8:30 am. Below is a preview of expectations.
Stay alert for potential “spike” price moves on the release!
Upcoming US CPI Report: Market Expectations and Implications
The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on February 12, 2025, is anticipated to show that inflation remained relatively stable in January. Market forecasts suggest a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the headline CPI, slightly below December’s 0.4% rise, maintaining the year-over-year rate at approximately 2.9%.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is also expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, down from 3.2% in December.
These projections indicate that while inflation has moderated from its mid-2022 peak of 9.1%, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Factors such as recent tariff implementations and a strong labor market, evidenced by low unemployment and robust wage growth, could contribute to persistent inflationary pressures.
Investors are closely monitoring these developments, as higher-than-expected inflation could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions, potentially delaying anticipated interest rate cuts.
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6090+-, initially targets 6110 – 6115 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6090+-, initially targets 6075 – 6070 zone.
PVA High Edge = 6096 PVA Low Edge = 6075 Prior POC = 6087
ES (Profile)
Nasdaq (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Positive 3-Day Cycle Statistic (91%) remains intact as price traded above the CD1 Low (21552.75). Overall activity was muted as traders await the all-import CPI Report. Range for this session was 202 handles on 418k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
Transition into Cycle Day 1: Today begins a new cycle with the objective to establish a secure low from which to stage the next rally.
Odds of Decline > 20 = 82%…> 25 = 76%
Stay alert for potential “spike” price moves on the release!
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 21785+-, initially targets 21875 – 21900 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 21785+-, initially targets 21700 – 21670 zone.
PVA High Edge = 21828 PVA Low Edge = 21743 Prior POC = 21785
NQ (Profile)
Economic Calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN