8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Housing Starts and Permits
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
8:30 Import/Export Prices
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price failed to recover CD1 Low, and constitutes a “failed” cycle, which has a 9% historical occurrence. Should a consecutive cycle failure happen, this would portend a more significant shift in the underlying technical condition of the market. This current cycle beginning today will be of an utmost importance test of the bull’s resolve. Range was 35.75 handles on 1.356M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 is for some magnitude decline, with the average measuring 3888. Price was rejected at the 3 Day Central Pivot Zone during overnight trade action and is currently trading near low end of prior value zone pre-RTH. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3910, initially targets 3925 – 3930 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3910, initially targets 3895 – 3885 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3929 PVA Low Edge = 3909 Prior POC = 3926
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2021 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3936; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3904; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3933; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3969; 10 Day Average True Range 32; VIX: 22
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price is trading within prior range during pre-RTH trading as well as fulfilling CD1 Average Decline (13593.75). Prior range was 242 handles on 574k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 13693 PVA Low Edge = 13585 Prior POC = 13654
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13594, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13655 – 13695 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13594, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13543 – 13504 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2021 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13716; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13578; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13773; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13867; 10 Day Average True Range: 145; VIX: 22
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN