Markets today will be eyeingminutes from the Fed’s January meeting, the one where Jerome Powell did an about-face and indicated that the central bank could hold off on raising rates. Next big market catalyst? Balance sheet normalization will likely be discussed, with Wall Street believing the Fed will end its roll-off by the end of the year. More clues will also be sought on what the minutes could mean for yield curve inversion trade, as well as the recent boost to stocks following the wildness of late 2018
In Asia, Japan +0.6%. Hong Kong +1%. China +0.2%. India +1.1%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.1%. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude -0.6% to $56.14. Gold +0.2% to $1346.90. Bitcoin +1.7% to $3929.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bps to 2.63%
Source: Seeking Alpha
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
10:00 E-Commerce Retail Sales
11:30 Results of $13B, 2-Year FRN Auction
2:00 PM FOMC minutes
3:00 PM Farm Prices
***PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price is quietly trading pre-RTH centered midway (2776) of prior session’s range as markets await the Fed minutes release. Today’s trade expectation is for a normal CD2 “back n fill” consolidation day type, until either of CD1’s range hi/lo can be expanded upon.
CD1 Range High = 2797.00 CD1 Range Low = 2758.00 CD1 Range Avg = 24.00
Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 2776, THEN initial upside potential targets test of 2787.50 prior high. IF cleared and converted to upper support, THEN expansion levels measure 2793.75 – 2797.00 range high zone.
Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2776, THEN initial downside objective targets test of 2766 CD1 Low. IF violated and converted to lower resistance, THEN downside expansion levels measure 2759 – 2754 range low zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2019 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 2797.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2759.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2772.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2794.00; 10 Day Average True Range 23.00; VIX: 15.00
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)… Price is quietly trading pre-RTH centered midway (7065) of prior session’s range as markets await the Fed minutes release. Today’s trade expectation is for a normal CD2 “back n fill” consolidation day type, until either of CD1’s range hi/lo can be expanded upon.
CD1 Range High = 7113.50 CD1 Range Low = 7028.50 CD1 Range Avg = 56.25
Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 7065, THEN initial upside potential targets test of 7094.75 prior high. IF cleared and converted to upper support, THEN expansion levels measure 7102.50 – 7116.50 range high zone.
Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 7065, THEN initial downside objective targets test of 7035.25 CD1 Low. IF violated and converted to lower resistance, THEN downside expansion levels measure 7014.50 – 7006.00 range low zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2019 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 7127.75; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7014.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7061.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7102.50; 10 Day Average True Range: 70.50; VIX: 15.00
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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