Markets
The conflict in Ukraine is roiling many sectors across the globe, with investors fearing contagion in all parts of the market. Stock index futures in the U.S. dropped precipitously overnight, with contracts linked to the Dow and S&P 500 off 2.5%, while the Nasdaq slid over 3%. Equities in Europe are doing worse, with the Euro Stoxx 50 plunging 5% after bourses posted earlier losses across Asia
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 GDP Q4
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
10:00 New Home Sales
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
1:00 PM Results of $50B, 7-Year Note Auction
1https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
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S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Markets continued their slide as “risk-off” theme builds momentum with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prior range was 133 handles on 1.836M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle, with the Average Decline measuring 4315, which is more than in-place. with markets down more than 2.50%. Markets will be in search of price stabilization and balance today. Volatility Index (VIX) has spiked to 37…So it is imperative to reassess your trading risk accordingly. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4140, initially targets 4160 – 4165 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4140, initially targets 4105 – 4100 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4294 PVA Low Edge = 4216 Prior POC = 4225
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4202; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4124; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4295; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4137; 10 Day Average True Range; 100; VIX: 37
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price has exceeded all downside cycle zones during overnight trade activity, as Tech Index is down > 3%. Risk-Off continues to be the dominant theme. Markets will be searching for price stabilization throughout an expected volatile session.Prior range was 598 handles on 703k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13150, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13282 – 13472 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13150, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13072– 13025 zone.
PVA High Edge = 14036 PVA Low Edge = 13689 Prior POC = 13962
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13472; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13072; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13805; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13454; 10 Day Average True Range: 445; VIX: 37
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN