U.S. indices managed to cut their losses on Tuesday, but the drop was still deep enough to push the S&P 500 into correction territory for the first time since Mar. 2020’s COVID-related selloff. The key index fell 1% during the session, resulting in a 10.6% decline since peaking at 4,818 on Jan. 4. While commodity prices remain elevated, the S&P 500 could climb back out of the hole today, with futures contracts tied to the index pointing a 1% gain ahead of the open. Meanwhile, the Dow and Nasdaq climbed 0.8% and 1.4%, respectively.
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 Fed’s Daly Speech
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
11:30 Results of $22B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $53B, 5-Year Note Auction
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Weakness from Cycle Day 1 shortened holiday session spilled over into this session, driving price to CD2 Violation Levels, before staging a recovery rally into the closing bell. Range was 109 handles on 2.092M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently above CD1 Low (4285.25)…As long as price trades above this level during the RTH, the 3 Day Cycle Statistic is fulfilled. Geo-political landscape has been the short-term driver of price action and we expect that to continue in the near-term. That said, there remains plenty of intra-day opportunities to select from, so stay focused on your trade plan and manage your risk. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains bid above 4322, initially targets 4340 – 4345 zone.
2.) Price sustains offer below 4322, initially targets 4295 – 4290 zone.
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 3 (CD3)
PVA High Edge = 4332 PVA Low Edge = 4275 Prior POC = 4316
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4402; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4252; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4330; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4321; 10 Day Average True Range 93; VIX: 28
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is rebounding from prior session’s wide range sell down, trading back to 5-day POC (13996). Prior range was 528 handles on 866k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 13996, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14055 – 14108 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 13996, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13912 – 13870 zone.
PVA High Edge = 14016 PVA Low Edge = 13772 Prior POC = 13935
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14329; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13652; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13936; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13828; 10 Day Average True Range: 417; VIX: 28
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN