U.S. markets were closed for Presidents’ Day on Monday, but intensifying tensions between the West and Russia was on full display across the globe. Russia’s benchmark stock index, the MOEX, plunged 10.5% for its largest daily percentage decline since the invasion of Crimea in 2014, while the pan-continental STOXX Europe 600 slid 1.3%. Jitters are also showing up in America, with futures contracts tied to the Dow and S&P 500 slipping 1.3% and 1.5% overnight, while the Nasdaq fell back 2.2%.
9:00 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:45 PMI Composite Flash
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
1:00 PM Results of $52B, 2-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Money Supply
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal CD1 as price declined to Violation Zone (4270 – 4260) where buyers stepped-in to take advantage of the holiday weakness. Prior range was 106 handles on 424k, contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price is trading back higher during overnight trade as traders assess the geo-political climate with Russia/Ukraine. Being a CD2 day, expectation is for normal 2-way traffic activity as bulls and bears negotiate price balance. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4322, initially targets 4345 – 4350 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4322, initially targets 4300 – 4292 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4348 PVA Low Edge = 4292 Prior POC = 4322
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4335; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4266; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4362; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4321; 10 Day Average True Range 85; VIX: 29
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price is currently trading back higher during overnight trade activity having found responsive buyers with the CD2 Violation Zone (13701 – 13641). Prior range was 441 handles on 237k contracts traded. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 13978 PVA Low Edge = 13750 Prior POC = 13852
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13885, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13948 – 13968 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13885, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13835 – 13810 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13968; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13578; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14080; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13809; 10 Day Average True Range: 388; VIX: 29
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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