Trade Strategy 2.8.23

Markets

 
Breaking a two-session losing streak, roller-coaster trading on Tuesday ended with stocks firmly in positive territory, as traders parsed the latest remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He repeated sentiments that were delivered as part of the FOMC’s last policy announcement, noting that the economy had entered a “disinflationary process.” While the central bank chief added that the effort will take “a good amount of time,” markets took heart from the fact that he didn’t take an aggressively hawkish turn following Friday’s hotter-than-expected jobs

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

10:00 Fed’s Bostic Speech
10:00 Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
12:30 PM Fed’s Kashkari Speech
1:00 PM Results of $35B, 10-Year Note Auction
1:45 PM Fed’s Waller Speech

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

 

10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories

S&P 500

***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Three-Day Cycle Statistic was fulfilled as price traded above the CD1 Low (4132.50). It was a “Wild Ride Clyde” session as JPOW’s speech gave the markets a roller coaster ride, ultimately closing near highs of the day. Prior range was 90 handles on 2.122M contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline measures 4130.50 for this cycle day. Current momentum favors the bulls, though “trading winds” seem to shift by the minute throughout the session, so stay nimble. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4175, initially targets 4195 – 4200 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4175, initially targets 4155 – 4150 zone.

PVA High Edge = 4153       PVA Low Edge = 4100         Prior POC = 4168

*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:

Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet  > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2023 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4224; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4109; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4144; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4232; 10 Day Average True Range  69; VIX: 19

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline measures 12585 for this cycle day.  Current momentum favors the bulls, though “trading winds” seem to shift by the minute throughout the session, so stay nimble. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.     

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 12775, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12820– 12835 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 12775, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12725 – 12720 zone.

PVA High Edge = 12765       PVA Low Edge = 12655     Prior POC = 12750

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 13041; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12484; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12625; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13085; 10 Day Average True Range: 324; VIX: 19

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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