Futures contracts linked to the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are all starting the week up 0.4% as the debate over whether a $1.9T stimulus bill will prompt a serious pickup in inflation continues to play out in the markets. Bond yields are turning lower for now, with the 10-year Treasury yield down 2 bps to 1.61%, suggesting a positive start to the week for equities, especially the hard-hit tech sector. A wide rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations in the U.S. is also helping stoke a bullish sentiment.
8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
4:00 PM Treasury International Capital
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price has fulfilled 3 Day Cycle Objective (3956) March Contract. Prior range was 36.25 handles on explosive 703K contracts exchanged. Contract Rollover continues into Front Month June (M).
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price has retested Cycle Target (3956) during overnight trade and is currently trading above prior high (3938.50). Key support is located with 3 Day Central Pivot Zone (3904 – 3914). As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3938, initially targets 3948 – 3950 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3938, initially targets 3928 – 3918 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3923 PVA Low Edge = 3910 Prior POC = 3922
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3996; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3875; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3833; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3909; 10 Day Average True Range 72; VIX: 21
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is currently trading above prior value zone. Prior range was 136 handles on 62k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 12890 PVA Low Edge = 12795 Prior POC = 12875
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 12930, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12970 – 12990 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 12930, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12900 – 12870 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2021 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13250; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12611; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12900; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13048; 10 Day Average True Range: 388; VIX: 21
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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